2025 DOLLAR WEAKNESS COULD PUSH GOLD HIGHER
The year 2024 was a good year for stocks, but it was a great year for gold. In fact, you could say that gold won in 2024 as well as in the first quarter of the 21st century.
As to both gold and silver together, they were both flat during December 2024 but nonetheless beat stocks. Gold and silver together also turned in an especially impressive performance during the first 25 years of the 21st century.
The New Year, 2025, started off well too, with gold up $30-plus while the major stock indexes retreated.
Let’s examine the major stock market indexes vs. gold and silver for December 2024 and full-year 2024.
Gold and silver stood out far above other major commodities, such as copper and crude oil, as well as platinum and palladium. Gold beat most major stock market indexes except for the volatile, tech-heavy NASDAQ index, which over-relies on the “Magnificent 7” trillion-dollar stocks overloaded with “artificial intelligence” (AI) plays.
Since gold is growing so much faster than stocks, hypothetically based on the past quarter-century, gold could reach $24K before the S&P reaches 24,000.”
U.S. Dollar Soared in 2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained over 7% during 2024, rising from 101.33 to 108.49 in the last 12 months. This means gold and other commodities rose by an average of over 7% more in terms of other currencies than they rose in terms of the U.S. dollar. The two biggest currencies in the DXY are the euro and yen, which declined 5.4% and 11.4%, respectively, over the last year.
However, the continuing high deficits in the U.S. budget will eventually weaken the dollar. On Thursday, January 2, 2025, The Wall Street Journal quoted Dominic Schnider, head of global foreign exchange at UBS’ wealth management division, as saying the dollar will “lose steam” in the first quarter and end 2025 down 5% to the euro and 8% to the Japanese yen. Also, Bank of America estimates the dollar is more than 20% overvalued. If the dollar sinks by even 10% in 2025, gold could easily score another 14% gain, to $3,000 or more and, in a best-case scenario, achieve $3,500 an ounce.
| Market Index | December | Full Year | Commodity | December | Full Year |
| S&P 500 | -2.5% | +23.3% | GOLD | -0.9% | +27.7% |
| Dow Jones | -5.3% | +12.9% | Silver | -0.3% | +23.1% |
| NASDAQ | +0.5% | +28.6% | Crude Oil | +5.5% | +0.1% |
| Russell 2000 | -8.4% | +10.0% | Copper | -2.3% | +2.7% |
Gold and silver together also turned in an especially impressive performance during the first 25 years of the 21st century.”
It’s interesting that four of the biggest Wall Street investment banks predict $3,000 or higher gold this year. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase see $3,000 gold, partly based on a decline in the dollar but also due to a resumption of inflation, increased central bank buying and a continuation of global crises in 2025.
| Market
After Inflation* |
End 1999 | End 2024 | 25-Year Gain |
| GOLD
+379.6% |
$290/oz | $2,633 | +808% |
| S&P 500
+111.5% |
1,469.25 | 5,881.6 | +300% |
| Dow Industrials
+95.5% |
11,497 | 42,554 | +270% |
| Shanghai Composite
+15.4% |
1,535 | 3,354 | +119% |
| Euronext 100
-17.4% |
930 | 1,454 | +56% |
| *Adjusted for +89.3% in the Consumer Price Index, 1999-2024; data source: Yahoo Finance. | |||
Gold Beats Stocks by 3-to-1 After Inflation During This Century
For the past 25 years, the U.S. stock market beat China and Europe by a long shot, but GOLD beat the two major U.S. market measures (the Dow and S&P 500) by more than three-fold after inflation, +380% for gold vs. +111 and 95% for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes.
I studied this carefully and compiled a chart that adjusts the gains for inflation, which makes the comparison between gold and stocks even more stark.
| Investment | Current Price | 2050 Projection (at the same growth rate as 2000-24) |
| GOLD (per ounce) | $2,633 | $23,907 (nearly $24K gold) |
| S&P 500 | 5,881 | 23,526 |
It’s entertaining to project where the U.S. stock market and gold might be in 25 years if they merely gain what they gained over the last 25 years. We have all heard about 24-karat (pure) gold, but time and inflation may add a new meaning to the term “24k gold” by 2050. Since gold is growing so much faster than stocks, hypothetically based on the past quarter-century, gold could reach $24,000 before the S&P does.
If the dollar sinks by even 10% in 2025, gold could easily score another 14% gain, to $3,000 or more, and, in a best-case scenario, achieve $3,500 an ounce.”
I may not be around to see $24,000 gold in 2050 or before, but it will be fascinating to watch the race to see which investment reaches that number first. Will it be gold or the S&P 500 stock market index? That S&P index changes its stock components every year and is “cap weighted” to give extra weight to its biggest winners (e.g. Nvidia in 2024).
There is no changing gold; it remains Element #79 (AU) on the periodic table—pure gold.
Mike Fuljenz,
president of Universal Coin & Bullion in Beaumont, Texas, is a leading coin expert and market analyst whose insightful writing and consumer advocacy have earned major honors from the ANA, PNG, NLG and the Press Club of Southeast Texas. McNeese State University awarded him an honorary doctorate of humane letters in 2015. His website is
www.universalcoin.com.
